Report analyzes potential Jordan Love contract with Packers

Essentially, the Packers gave Love a “prove it” deal for the 2023 season. He answered by leading the youngest team in the NFL to the Divisional Round. He also went 372-for-579 passing for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions along the way.

Now, the Packers have to pay.

Schneidman crunched the numbers on Love’s play and league quarterback salaries with Spotrac founder Michael Ginnitti to find what a hypothetical deal for Love would look like. Ginnitti thinks Love would earn nearly $36M per year based on stats and by going off comparable deals with Daniel Jones, Geno Smith and Justin Herbert.

However, the Packers aren’t likely going to get off that cheap for Love. Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow all make over $50M annually. Love will be closer to that category than in the 30s, especially after the salary cap increase this offseason.

Ginnitti said Love will likely receive a contract in the ballpark of Herbert:

“If we bring Herbert into the equation (a player our math says Love compares to quite favorably), we’re now dealing with a $133 million guarantee over three years, against a $224.8 million salary cap, or a 19.8-percent allocation. Adjusted forward for 2024, and the average guarantee now becomes $50.5 million, which also just so happens to be the total value average salary across Herbert’s seven-year contract.”

That’s a hefty price to pay after one season starting. But general manager Brian Gutekunst took that gamble when he had Love sit behind Rodgers for three seasons. 

Ginnitti thinks part of the gamble the Packers will have to take on is to eschew their “no base salary guarantee” way of doing things:

“In this regard, it’s not hard to envision a four-year, $200 million extension for Love (five years, $211 million total value, including $151.5 million practically guaranteed over the next three or three and a half seasons).

Of course, this kind of guarantee structure would involve Green Bay shifting away from its rigid “no base salary guarantee” policy, but with most other teams going this route for their blockbuster quarterback contract, the Packers are likely next to follow suit.”

The Packers have the roster to give Love a payday. Love led an efficient offense with a wide receiver group on rookie contracts. They will have to bet that streak will continue for the next half-decade.